|GBPUSD 4 hour chart w/ stochastics|
Furthermore we can see that the market is appearing to be overextended in the short term with stochastics in the low 90's - this is on top of an impressive rally over the past week with the GBPUSD rallying for the 7th straight day, last time it lasted for 8 was over 160 weeks ago. While not itself a reason to sell, the market is running out of momentum (see stochastics) and we are likely to see longs cover after failing to take the 1.67 level.
On top of selling spot, I'm also selling a 1.70 March 6th call for 22 pips premium (mid vol 8%) at spot ref 1.665. Assuming we do roll over tomorrow, at 1.6550 I will look to sell 1.61 puts for the same expiration so as to structure a 3-week strangle, with net premium in around 34 pips. The Vega/Theta for this expiration is around 7 days, so It would be good if implied volatility stays low, but overall this should not be a problem.
First target is down at 1.65, but Ideally, I would like to hold down towards 1.6250
On a side note - today is the first day in a long time where the EURUSD has risen yet my short term fair value model for the EURUSD has fallen, very strange...