Thursday, 13 February 2014

Selling GBP against the highs

We've seen the GBP rally over the last few sessions by about 400 points (2.5%) and as we stand at 1.6650 I'm selling at market. This trade is looking for a potential double top at 1.6660 or so, where today, we failed to meaningfully take. Trading on the periphery of a large stops, means the probability may not be as favourable as potentially waiting for the GBPUSD to topple over, but vastly increases the risk:reward profile of the trade.

GBPUSD 4 hour chart w/ stochastics

Furthermore we can see that the market is appearing to be overextended in the short term with stochastics in the low 90's - this is on top of an impressive rally over the past week with the GBPUSD rallying for the 7th straight day, last time it lasted for 8 was over 160 weeks ago. While not itself a reason to sell, the market is running out of momentum (see stochastics) and we are likely to see longs cover after failing to take the 1.67 level.

On top of selling spot, I'm also selling a 1.70 March 6th call for 22 pips premium (mid vol 8%) at spot ref 1.665. Assuming we do roll over tomorrow, at 1.6550 I will look to sell 1.61 puts for the same expiration so as to structure a 3-week strangle, with net premium in around 34 pips. The Vega/Theta for this expiration is around 7 days, so It would be good if implied volatility stays low, but overall this should not be a problem.

First target is down at 1.65, but Ideally, I would like to hold down towards 1.6250

On a side note - today is the first day in a long time where the EURUSD has risen yet my short term fair value model for the EURUSD has fallen, very strange...

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